A sequence of events…
- Israel’s short-term goal in its assault on Iran appears to be the crippling of the latter’s nuclear infrastructure:
It is clear what Israel wants by this operation: it is aiming to, at the very least, set back Iran’s nuclear programme by years. Preferably it would like to halt it altogether.
Frank Gardner, BBC News, 13 June 2025
- Israel cannot achieve its stated goal (however fanciful) without seriously incapacitating the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is buried deep inside a mountain near the city of Qom:
If the Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program, started on June 13, is to prove successful in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons, then a necessary—but not sufficient—step will involve the elimination of the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.
Richard Nephew, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 17 June 2025
- Israel is reaching the limitations of what its arsenal can achieve alone:
The overground section of the nuclear facility at Natanz was targeted in the first wave of attacks. On Tuesday, the IAEA said that the 15,000 centrifuges there are likely to have been damaged or destroyed. This morning, Israel struck the Arak nuclear facility, which has in any case never been fully operational and was deactivated a decade ago. Other Iranian nuclear facilities are deep underground, where Israel’s air force can’t reach them.
Tom Stevenson, London Review of Books, 19 June 2025
- If the United States answers to Israel’s desire for assistance, it will be in attempting to destroy the facilities at Fordow:
Israel does not appear to have the conventional ‘bunker buster’ weapons needed to attack Iran’s underground Fordow uranium enrichment plant – but it has been widely assumed that the US does.
Paul Rogers, Open Democracy, 20 June
- The only weapon remotely capable of achieving this is the GBU-57/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (‘MOP’):
American military engineers designed the GBU-57/B bomb to devastate deeply buried bunkers without radioactive fallout. It’s the only nonnuclear weapon that can reach Iran’s hardest target
Deni Ellis Béchard, Scientific American, 18 June 2025
- The only aircraft capable of delivering the ‘MOP’ is the United States’ Northrop B-2 Spirit
Only U.S.-made B-2 Spirit stealth bombers are programmed to carry the GBU-57s, which weigh more than 30,000 pounds. Each B-2 based at Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri can hold two of the bombs.
Janet Loehrke/Ramon Padilla/Sara Chernikoff, USA Today, 18 June 2025
- If the United States opts to strike Fordow with a MOP-equipped B–2, it will likely do so from a base at Diego Garcia of the Chagos Islands, in the Indian Ocean:
US Air Force B-2 bombers have a long range, of about 6,000 miles without refuelling, but they usually operate from a limited number of bases: Whiteman in Missouri, Fairford in Gloucestershire and most notably the isolated base of Diego Garcia in the south Indian Ocean, now leased from Mauritius by the UK for the US…Diego Garcia is far closer to Fordow, a 3,200-mile trip each way, which would require refuelling on the return leg once a bombing run on Iran’s nuclear sites had been completed.
Dan Sabbagh, The Guardian, 17 June 2025
- The United Kingdom retained the lease to the Diego Garcia military base as part of the deal to return the Chagos Islands territory to Mauritius:
The Chagos Archipelago was separated from Mauritius in 1965, when Mauritius was still a British colony. Britain invited the US to build a military base on Diego Garcia and removed thousands of people from their homes on the island and preventing their return.
Sam Francis and Kate Whannel, BBC News, 22 May 2025
- The United States cannot attack Iran from Diego Garcia without the permission of the United Kingdom:
The UK government will have to sign off on the US use of its Diego Garcia base in any bombing raid on Iran, it has emerged, as ministers gathered to discuss a range of scenarios amid further increasing tensions in the region.
Pippa Crerar and Dan Sabbagh, The Guardian, 18 June 2025
- At the time of writing, B–2s have departed Whiteman and are believed to be heading to Diego Garcia:
U.S. Air Force B-2 stealth bombers have departed from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri with aerial refuelling support from eight KC-135 Stratotankers. The aircraft appear to be heading toward Diego Garcia, a strategic U.S. military base in the Indian Ocean.
George Allison, UK Defence Journal, 21 June 2025
In summary…
With all current circumstances taken into account, it is very likely that, in the event that the United States attacks Iran in the coming weeks, it will do so with the complicity of the British government.
Disposable Everything 